Gold And Silver Price Projections
We often get asked questions such as “will gold rebound?”, “Can we predict price movements?”, “is gold price climbing?”, “are silver prices going down?” but we don’t have an answer to any these questions as we cannot see the future. You can obviously view the historical gold and silver price data, link it to political movements, terrorism, banking decisions and other world events to try and make sense of the price changes. This way we invite you to understand and reach your own conclusions on why gold prices are falling or why silver prices may be increasing. If you want to know why the price of gold went up in 2012 please use our data with your own research to draw conclusions and similarly why it dropped in 2013 only to increase in price again in 2016.
In conclusion, we cannot offer any investment advice or see into our crystal ball. We cannot provide gold and silver forecasts for tomorrow, the next 5 years, in 2020 or even next week but we do offer historical data should you compare the gold price over the last 100 years or 5 years. Our data stretches back to 1833 for gold and 1791 for silver.
When Is The Gold Price The Strongest
It can be difficult to predict the next major rally in gold as it is strongly driven by sentiment. Gold does well in period of high uncertainty, a shifting inflationary environment and during periods of currency debasement however, historically, there have been high and low seasonal period in the gold market. Historically, September is golds strongest month. Many western jeweler start to build their gold inventories during this time to prepare for the holiday season. The next strongest month is January, which traditionally sees strong buying among Eastern nations ahead of the Lunar New Year. The worst month has historically been March, April and then June.
Gold Stocks Are Where You’ll Want Your Money
While it’s pretty obvious that I foresee big gains ahead for gold, I believe it’s important to point out that owning physical gold isn’t your best investment option. As I noted earlier, physical gold doesn’t offer a yield. That’s not the case with gold-mining stocks.
By purchasing individual gold stocks or mining-focused exchange-traded funds, you get to take advantage of increasing leverage from higher gold prices, and you might be able to collect a dividend in the process. Keep in mind that a $100/ounce increase in the price of gold here would net physical metal investors an extra 5%. For a mining stock, this $100 per-ounce increase might boost its operating cash flow by 10%.
There are a lot of really great names in the gold-mining industry that I’d encourage investors to acquaint themselves with. Kirkland Lake Gold is a company that frequently floats to the top of my list. Kirkland Lake has the best balance sheet in the entire industry, with $537.4 million in cash as of the end of June, and no debt. It doubled its dividend earlier this year, repurchased $379.8 million worth of its own stock, and is sporting an all-in sustaining cost of just $751 per ounce. Essentially, Kirkland Lake Gold is working with a nearly $1,300 cash operating margin per ounce above its AISC at the moment.
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Why Are Silver And Gold Prices So Different
The reason gold and silver prices vary widely boils down to one simple fact: rarity. The less supply there is of a metal, the higher the price. Therefore, gold prices tend to be much higher than silver prices because it is much harder to get. The reason supply is much larger for silver is because it is an easier metal to mine and it is often mined as a by-product to other metals mining. The average occurrence of gold in igneous rock is 0.004 parts per million. Silver shows up at a rate of 0.07 parts per million.
For Gold Watches And Other Brand Name Jewelry
Most gold jewelry is sold based on its scrap gold value. After buying a gold engagement ring, a vendor will normally melt it down so that the gold can be reused for a new item.
Luxurious, brand name items are different. While a regular gold wedding band will sell based on its scrap gold value, an item like a gold wristwatch or a brand name gold bracelet from a popular fashion house usually has much more value in its finished form than it does as scrap gold.
For example, a gold Rolex Day-Date, which is made from 18k gold, contains about 51 grams of pure gold. Even at the current gold spot price , its only worth about $2,700 based on its gold content.
As such, selling it based on its scrap gold value is not a good idea, when even the oldest, most poorly maintained watch of this type will usually sell for thousands of dollars more elsewhere.
Likewise, used jewelry from brands like Hermès, Gucci and other high fashion brands may only contain a tiny amount of gold, but still have a significant value as pre-owned jewelry.
If you have a brand name gold ring, earrings, bracelet or other jewelry that youd like to sell, we recommend getting in touch with Abe Mor. If its something they buy, theyll offer the best price if not, they may be able to recommend a suitable place to sell it.
For brand name gold or two-tone watches worth more than $1,000, youll generally get the best price by selling to a vendor that specializes in pre-owned watches. These can be found online or locally.
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Are The Gold Prices Per Ounce The Same Around The Globe
One troy ounce of gold is the same around the world and for larger transaction are usually priced in U.S. dollars as that is the most active market however, the value of an ounce of gold can be higher or lower based on the value of a nations currency. Traditionally, currencies that are stronger than the U.S. dollar have a lower value gold, price where currencies that are lower than the U.S. dollar have a higher prices. While gold is mostly quoted in ounces per U.S. dollar, OTC markets in other countries also offer other weight options.
The Kitco Gold Index is an exclusive feature that calculates the relative worth of one ounce of gold by removing the impact of the value of the U.S. dollar index. The Kitco Gold Index is the price of gold measured not in terms of U.S. Dollars, but rather in terms of the same weighted basket of currencies that determine the US Dollar Index®.
How High Could The Price Of Silver Go
Silver has actually circulated as currency more often than gold. While silver has numerous industrial uses and can thus be affected by economic activity, it too has served as a safe haven during periods of financial crisis. It will perform in tandem with gold. Mike Maloney thinks silver could ultimately hit the high three figures.
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When Is The Best Time To Sell Gold
The best time to sell gold is when the spot price of gold is high and youre comfortable with the idea of selling your gold coins, jewelry, bullion or other gold items.
Gold, like other commodities, constantly fluctuates in value. Like the stock market, working out whether the price of gold will increase or decrease isnt easy, and beating the market for gold is something that even the savviest investors struggle to do with any consistency.
If you have a significant amount of gold and want to sell at the best possible time, you can use gold forecasts and analyses to stay on top of market trends. These can offer useful information on gold prices, but like anything else market-related, their predictions arent always perfect.
Because of this, its best to sell gold when you need cash, and when you feel that the price of gold is at a high enough point for you to justify parting with your gold items.
Gold Price Prediction Chart
Ive compiled gold price predictions from a number of banks and precious metals analysts.
The table below shows the gold price prediction from various consultancies and independent analysts. Not all gave a forecast for both time periods, but Ive listed what theyve stated publicly. Heres what they think is ahead for gold.
You can see that most analysts predict gold will exceed $2,000 per ounce in 2021. Two project it will average in the $1,900-range. And of those I found, all are very bullish long-term .
A couple interesting points to highlight from these analysts
CPM Groups projection is lower than most, but if gold averages $1,922 in 2021, it would represent an 8.2% increase over 2020 and a record annual average. They also state that we expect prices to rise sharply at some point in the future, to new records significantly higher than $2,000. Such an increase would be expected to be caused by investors buying increased volumes of gold in a future economic and political crisis the period 2023 2025 is perhaps the most likely time period to expect such.
Meanwhile, well note that analyst Ross Norman has won first place in the LBMA gold price survey nine times. He predicts gold will rise 20% this year.
Last, the average 2021 gold price forecasts from these analysts is $2,228.
So what is my 2021 gold price prediction? To answer that question we have to look at the various factors that are likely to have the biggest impact on the price, both positive and negative.
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How Is The Spot Price Of Precious Metals Determined
The spot price is based on trading activity in the futures markets. Precious metals trade just like stocks and other securities do. Spot price reflects the current trading price.
In the US, the COMEX is the primary exchange that sets the price, which fluctuates throughout the trading day. This is the price that filters down to the retail level and is quoted to you when you go to buy from a dealer, depending on what buyers and sellers are doing.
COMEX transactions involve the buying and selling of futures contracts. In the case of gold, each of them represents 100 ounces of the metal. For silver, contracts are for 5,000 ounces . It is possible for individuals to buy physical gold or silver on the Comex, but the size of the contracts puts them out of the reach of all but the most affluent buyers. In addition, taking delivery of metal from the Comex is a complicated procedure. Thus nearly all of the trading on the exchange results from major financial institutions making speculative moves or hedges, using large contracts as the vehicle.
So, oddly, the price you will pay for physical gold at any given time is driven by a market where nearly 100% of the participants are simply trading paper and have no interest in purchasing physical gold. The spot price is quoted in US dollars.
What Is Gold Worth
The worth of Gold is determined by the current spot price. This price is determined by many factors such as market conditions, supply and demand, and even news of political and social events. The value or worth of a Gold product is calculated relative to the weight of its pure metal content and is measured in troy ounces. However, collectible or rare Gold products may carry a much higher premium over and above the value found in its raw metal weight.
Additionally, other factors such as merchandising, packaging or certified grading from a trusted third-party may influence the final worth of the Gold product you are purchasing.
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How Much Is An Ounce Of Gold
The price of gold per ounce is perhaps the most common way investors monitor the gold market. The image below shows a 1 ounce gold nugget and a 1 ounce gold coin – in this case a gold eagle coin. The Gold Price Now chart at the top of the page shows the current value of gold in US dollars. You can also get the price of gold in other world currencies by selecting a different currency from the drop down menu below the chart.
Historical Prices Of Gold And Silver
The price of gold today is determined by supply and demand as it is traded through large global markets of physical metals , and even contracts for future delivery at a specific price.
In the US, a market-determined price is a relatively recent phenomenon. For most of US history, government set the price at which gold could be converted to paper currency. In the early years of the republic, the exchange rate was $19.39/ounce. In 1834, it rose to $20.67 and stayed at or near that mark until 1933, when Franklin Roosevelt increased it to $35. Roosevelt also banned the private ownership of gold bullion by US citizens, and canceled the convertibility of paper dollars to metal, so the price only reflected what foreign buyers paid. Finally, in 1972, President Nixon closed the “gold window” citizens could own gold again but foreigners could not redeem paper dollars for gold through the government . The gold price was allowed to freely float.
Silver, by contrast, has always had a market-determined price, and its price history is marked by the sharp fluctuations youd expect absent any constant-price peg determined by the federal government.
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How Does The Price Of Gold Perform During Recessions
Gold prices typically increase during economic recessions. One way to analyze gold prices during a recession is by comparing its performance with the S& P 500. Below are the dates of the largest declines of the S& P 500 and the performance of gold prices during the same period. This data shows that gold increased significantly in 75% of these recessions.
Organizations That Influence Xau/usd The Most
- WGC , the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX , the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society .
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Most Influential Political Events In 2021 For Xau/usd
Despite the liquidity flooding the financial markets, inflation outlook in major economies remains subdued and major central banks voiced their commitment to keeping their policies extremely loose until they see a convincing increase in price pressures. This suggests that investors will not give up on gold in the near future.
On the other hand, a return to normality with mass COVID-19 vaccinations could make risk-sensitive assets more attractive, especially in the second half of 2021, and dampen the demand for the yellow metal.
Can You Buy Gold At The Spot Price
Not likely. As noted, the spot price is determined by the action in the futures market. It is for unfabricated metal . There are value-added costs involved in transforming molten metal into a gold or silver coins, small bars, or jewelry. So premiums are charged along the way: by the refiner, the fabricator who manufactured the product, and the dealer who procures and sells the product.
Your cost will depend on the form of gold you buy.
What Is a “Premium?”
A premium is the amount over spot price that you pay. It is the sum of the additional fees charged to consumers for the services of refining, molding, fabricating, and handling precious metals.
The lowest-premium items are bars, which can be either poured or stamped. Coins and rounds carry slightly higher premiums, since they have more intricate designs and are always stamped. Gold jewelry tends to carry the highest premiums, given the craftsmanship involved .
All dealers charge a premium over the spot price. Heres how to find a reputable dealer with competitive premiums, along with advice on what to buy.
How Does the Gold Market Differ From the Stock Market?
The stock market involves the trading of stock, the transfer of shares from sellers to buyers. For the most part, buyers want to own that stock in their account until they sell it for a higher price. This holding period can be measured in seconds, decades, or any time period in between.
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Gold Reserves And Central Banks
The Central Banks of countries around the world not only oversee monetary policies and their own currency, they also control money supplies, set interest rates and manage inflation to the best of their ability. Whether successful or not, many western countries have tied their currency to gold. Today, Central Banks of many countries, especially the United States, continue to hold large gold reserves. Because of this, the IMF and central banks play a major role in determining the price of gold. Whenever a Central Bank sells off some of its gold reserves, a downward trend in gold prices typically follows. Conversely, when a Central Bank of a country adds to its gold reserves, this results in the price of gold increasing.
Today, many western countries continue to view the policy of holding gold as an effective hedge against the US dollar. In fact, the World Gold Council states that Central Banks have recently begun to buy more gold than they are selling, thus driving up its price. One reason for this buying trend could be that holding physical gold in reserve is seen as strengthening a country’s currency because it has a tangible asset tied to that currency. These are just some of the reasons experts cite when discussing the fact that China and Russia have recently been significant buyers of gold. These are also reasons why the price of gold continues an upward trend.