Gold Price Prediction Chart
Ive compiled gold price predictions from a number of banks and precious metals analysts.
The table below shows the gold price prediction from various consultancies and independent analysts. Not all gave a forecast for both time periods, but Ive listed what theyve stated publicly. Heres what they think is ahead for gold.
You can see that most analysts predict gold will exceed $2,000 per ounce in 2021. Two project it will average in the $1,900-range. And of those I found, all are very bullish long-term .
A couple interesting points to highlight from these analysts
CPM Groups projection is lower than most, but if gold averages $1,922 in 2021, it would represent an 8.2% increase over 2020 and a record annual average. They also state that we expect prices to rise sharply at some point in the future, to new records significantly higher than $2,000. Such an increase would be expected to be caused by investors buying increased volumes of gold in a future economic and political crisis the period 2023 2025 is perhaps the most likely time period to expect such.
Meanwhile, well note that analyst Ross Norman has won first place in the LBMA gold price survey nine times. He predicts gold will rise 20% this year.
Last, the average 2021 gold price forecasts from these analysts is $2,228.
So what is my 2021 gold price prediction? To answer that question we have to look at the various factors that are likely to have the biggest impact on the price, both positive and negative.
Gold In The Age Of High
The best thing you can do is know how to have a balanced portfolio.Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates
In an article headlined Robots conquered stock markets/Now theyre coming for bonds and currencies, Bloomberg finance reporter Lananh Nguyen tells us: In the most liquid equity markets, more than 90 percent of trades are executed electronically, according to estimates from Greenwich Associates. That compares with 79 percent in global foreign exchange, 44 percent in U.S. Treasuries and 26 percent in U.S. corporate bonds, with the most room for growth in the latter two markets, according to McPartland at Greenwich. Just this year, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs requested counterparties forgive rogue, machine-driven trades that caused a $41 billion flash crash in a matter of seconds. Though concentrated in a single stock, such anomalous events serve as a cautionary tale on how a full-out, machine-driven panic might evolve on a larger scale.
Ready to include a safe haven in your portfolio plan?DISCOVER THE USAGOLD DIFFERENCE
USAGOLD note: Blain becomes introspective in the run-up to the holidays. Chasing value is his theme
Gold knocking once again on $1800s door, silver looking revitalizedHamilton: Delayed secular gold bull should be resuming
Chart of the Day
Gold and silver price performanceChart courtesy of TradingView.com
When Will Gold Go Up: Gold Supply And Gold Demand
Whether the gold price is sliding down or heading up, market participants are always on the lookout for the next catalyst that will drive the price higher.
Investors should continue to watch for destabilizing geopolitical events, the ongoing socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, future Fed rate changes and ongoing trade tensions between China and other G7 countries, including the US, Canada and Australia.
But what about gold supply or gold demand? The World Gold Councils 2020 report indicates that last year both gold mine production and total gold supply decline by 4 percent compared to 2019. The WGC attributes that slide to operational disruptions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns.
Gold bars and gold coins saw an increase of 3 percent in annual demand, while gold exchange-traded funds reached record year-end holdings of 3,751.5 tonnes, up 120 percent year-over-year. Overall in 2020, investment demand for gold accounted for more than 46 percent of total demand.
However, overall consumer demand for gold in 2020 was negatively impacted by the coronavirus pandemic, resulting in a 14 percent decline that led to total annual demand dipping below 4,000 tonnes for the first time since 2009.
On the industrial side, gold is used in electronics technology and is benefiting from the rise of nanotechnology. This demand segment was also impacted by COVID-19 lockdowns, with demand for gold declining by 7 percent in 2020 to 301.9 tonnes.
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Will Gold Prices Rise To $2000 Per Ounce
As an asset class, gold tends to do well in periods of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and high inflation. Looking at the current economic scenario, we actually have a bit of everything. Despite the vaccination drive gaining traction globally, and expectations of robust economic growth in 2021, the economic scenario is still uncertain. There’s always a risk of a new COVID-19 variant that might get the better of the vaccines.
Why Gold Could Rise For The Next 10 Years
Contrary to popular opinion, gold and silver are not hedges against a crisis. In fact, a crisis may cause all salable assets, including precious metals, to be sold in order to get cash.
At Dohmen Capital Research, we believe a good recent example is the 2008 global crisis. Gold plunged 31% as credit tightened, the crisis accelerated and a rush to cash from all assets commenced. That was painful for bulls who didnt know that a credit crisis causes all assets to plunge. But it also created a great buying opportunity at the bottom. Here is the chart of the gold ETF during that time:
Gold investors must realize this to protect themselves in times of crisis. Cash in the form of a stable currency is the most desirable asset to hold during such times.
However, crises cause the central banks to step on the monetary accelerator, which then makes gold a great investment as you can see on the chart above. That bull market in gold went from late 2008 to late 2011, three years. As our motto says, timing is everything.
Gold has been widely ignored since 2011 as an asset class for institutional portfolios. However, that should change as most other asset classes deteriorate and become unattractive for a while.
What is bullish for gold? My opinion is that gold is primarily an inflation hedge, actual inflation or the perception of future inflation, as currencies are debased by governments that cant pay their bills.
Golds Bullish Prospects For The Longer Term
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The Significance Of Changes In The Gold Price
If youve ever been exposed to even one commercial on a financial TV network, youve been told that gold was, is, and forever will be, the greatest investment of all time, considering its retention of value, millennia-long history, scarcity, and other reasons.
However, the companies selling gold will gladly take your cash in exchange for it, which ought to tell you something about golds short-term prognosis and the likelihood of imminent inflation.
What Is The World Gold Council
Founded in 1987, the World Gold Council is the market development organization for the gold industry responsible for stimulating demand, developing innovative uses for gold and taking new products to the market. Based in the U.K., the WGCs members include major gold mining companies. There are currently 17 members including Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, Goldcorp, China Gold, Kinross, Franco Nevada, Silver Wheaton, Yamana Gold and more.
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Factors That May Affect The Price Of Gold
Typically, traders associate fundamental analysis with the stock market, not gold. While fundamental stock market analysts monitor certain companies’ financial statements, gold market analysts monitor macroeconomic factors, political and economic world stability, and competition from investment alternatives to forecast prices. Let’s look into five macroeconomic parameters that can influence the cost of the main precious metal.
Understanding The Future Of Gold
Gold, like many assets, moves in cycles driven by events and economic factors. When gold is in a bull market, its moves can be dramatic. Therefore, it is important to consider some allocation in gold to take advantage of any potential upward moves.
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Are The Gold Prices Per Ounce The Same Around The Globe
One troy ounce of gold is the same around the world and for larger transaction are usually priced in U.S. dollars as that is the most active market however, the value of an ounce of gold can be higher or lower based on the value of a nations currency. Traditionally, currencies that are stronger than the U.S. dollar have a lower value gold, price where currencies that are lower than the U.S. dollar have a higher prices. While gold is mostly quoted in ounces per U.S. dollar, OTC markets in other countries also offer other weight options.
The Kitco Gold Index is an exclusive feature that calculates the relative worth of one ounce of gold by removing the impact of the value of the U.S. dollar index. The Kitco Gold Index is the price of gold measured not in terms of U.S. Dollars, but rather in terms of the same weighted basket of currencies that determine the US Dollar Index®.
What Is The Difference Between An Ounce And A Troy Ounce When Looking At A Gold Chart
A troy ounce is used specifically in the weighing and pricing of precious metals and its use dates back to the Roman Empire when currencies were valued in weight. The process was carried over to the British Empire where one pound sterling was worth one troy pound of silver. The U.S. Mint adopted the troy ounce system in 1828.
A troy ounce is about slightly heavier than an imperial ounce by about 10%. An imperial ounce equals 28.35 grams, while a troy ounce is equal to 31.1 grams.
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Gold Price Forecast For The Next 10 Years
Looking out 10 years into the future can be a little more difficult because it can be harder to predict what may happen. However, there is one factor that we can look at, long-term trends. Bull and bear market cycles in the precious metals market tend to last about 10 to 20 years. Heres a look at the current market cycles of gold in the last 50 years:
1970 to 1980 Bull Market
1980 to 2000 Bear Market
2000 to 2010 Bull Market
2010 to 2020 Bear Market
2020 to Present Bull Market
During the bull market of the 1970s, the price of gold went up from $35 an ounce to $500 per ounce. This was a 1,600% move. During the bull market of the 2000s. The price of gold moved up from $280 to $1,420. This was a 600% move. In 2020, the price of gold was $1,773. Currently, the price of gold is $1,930. Thats a 10% move in the last 2 years. If we split the difference between the last two bull markets. It is possible that the price of gold could make a 1,000% move in the next ten years from its 2020 price. That could put the price of gold at $17,000 by 2032.
The Factors That May Affect The Rates
The price of gold follows the trends of the cost of living, which means if it rises, the same will happen with its price too. As the crisis began, most of the banks tried to ensure their clients their assets are safe, even though some experts were suspicious about that. But, the most important relationship between two assets is the one between gold and the American dollar, and most of the experts are using them as a benchmark for their predictions and expectations.
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Gold Price Prediction 2021
Analysts have a mixed forecast for gold in 2021, unlike 2020 when most brokerages were bullish on gold. In 2020, Citi forecasted that gold would reach $2,500 per ounce. However, in April 2021, Citi said that now it expects gold to trade between $1,700 and $1,900 per ounce. It cited a supply surplus, rising interest rates, and investors allocating money to other commodities like copper and oil, to support its bearish narrative.
A report published in February 2021 by the London Bullion Market Association showed that analysts expect gold prices to average $1,973.8 per ounce in 2021, which is 11.5 percent higher than what it averaged in 2020.
Gold Weekly Price Forecast As Of 20122021
After the price reached the first downside target at 1760 for sell trades entered in the zone of 1802 1782, the price started correction up in the medium-term downtrend. The correction likely target will be the test of the trend key resistance 1834 1827. After the price reaches the key resistance, it will be relevant to enter new sell trades with a target ta 1760.
While the gold price is rising, one could buy in the correction with the first target in 1834 1827. I recommend considering long trades when the correction reaches 50% of the impulse that occurred last week, that is level 1783. The first buy target will be at level 1815.
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Prediction #: Gold Prices Will Increase
Even though the price of gold is at an all-time high, many people think that the market will maintain its bullishness and that the price of gold will only go up from here. Some industry experts are predicting that gold could be worth anywhere from $3,000$5,000 per ounce in the next 510 years!
For those who think gold prices will increase, they cite that people are now recognizing the value of gold, which will increase the demand, therefore increasing the value. Others cite unstable economies, due in part to the coronavirus, as the reason for this potential increase, as the world will likely take years to overcome this recession.
Why Is Gold Down Nearly $100 After Fed Shakes Up Markets
In just 24 hours, gold managed to lose nearly $100 after the Federal Reserve signaled higher inflation and updated its dot plot projections, showing a possibility of two rate hikes as soon as 2023.
The news triggered a surge in the U.S. dollar and a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which weighed heavily on gold. The precious metal’s plunge was intensified by technical selling as gold tumbled below the $1,800 and came close to testing critical support at $1,770-60.
The market zeroed in on the upward revision to the PCE inflation forecast for 2021, which was raised a full percentage point from 2.4% in March to 3.4%. This comes after very strong inflation readings in April and May.
During the press conference, which followed the Fed statement on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to reassure the markets that the central banks’ dot plot, which showed that two rate hikes are possible as early as 2023, should be taken with a “big grain of salt.”
He stated: “We did not have a discussion whether a lift-off is appropriate at any particular year. It is too early to talk about that. The dot plot is not a great forecaster of future rate moves.”
Powell also reiterated that the Fed does view the spike in inflation as transitory, making comparisons to the surge in lumber prices, which are now settling down.
However, the market has already made up its mind, viewing the Fed’s June announcement as surprisingly hawkish, which is why gold suffered.
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Central Planning Of Ports And Transportation Causes Inflation
Did we mention that government central planning of ports and transportation infrastructure has restricted capacity and interfered with efficiency in many other ways? For example, slowing the adoption of new technologies in the ports. The net result is that the government has added many useless ingredients to shipping and logistics, the cost of which is included in many of the things we buy at retail.
Anti-pipeline policy has limited the flow of oil from Canada. Too many ships waiting offshore LA has meant they are drifting or attempting to anchor outside the limited number of anchor slots. One such attempt severed an oil pipeline. This will not only further reduce the flow of energy to where it is needed, but probably serve the anti-energy demagogues and politicians with a readymade excuse to ban the next pipeline that comes up for permitting.
The True Cause Of Inflation Right Now
The cause is a barrage of production – killing regulations. If the government wanted industry to produce less, to make goods scarcer, to drive up the cost of living and force down the standard of living – then it could not have devised a more effective plan. And it gets away with it all the more easily because people blame the Fed and the purchasing power of the dollar.
The purchasing power of the dollar makes a perfect scapegoat. If this is the root cause, then what does every voter, wage earner, and retiree on fixed income do? He blames greedy corporations, greedy bosses, and greedy COLA committees for not giving him a raise. He thinks this is a grand conspiracy by which the rich get richer at his expense.
The socialist revolutionary sees the misplaced anger, and grins dryly, good, good.
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When Will Gold Go Up
Gold broke US$2,000 in the summer of 2020, but soon fell back a few pegs. Many market watchers are now wondering, When will gold go up?
Of all the metals on Earth, gold shines the brightest when it comes to holding its value and being a vehicle for building and preserving wealth.
In fact, the gold price has risen by as much as 700 percent in the last 20 twenty years. Despite that impressive increase, many investors are still wondering, When will gold go up?
The precious metal is a safe haven asset that performs well in tumultuous times, and there have been plenty of global crisis events in the past few years most recently the socioeconomic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are plenty of gold bulls calling for the price of the yellow metal to double, triple and even quadruple the current figure. Nevertheless, answering the question, When will gold go up? is a bit of a guessing game, even for the most veteran gold market analysts.
That said, there are certain time-tested indicators for when gold will go up that market participants can track in order to make a more educated guess about the precious metals future price action.