When Will Gold Go Up: Gold In The Future
Gold broke through the US$1,900 level in Q2 2021, leading investors to dream of another Summer of Love for the precious metal. Will the gold price post a new record-breaking high in 2021? Many analysts think theres enough support for gold prices to once again rise above US$2,000.
Byron King, who writes the Whiskey & Gunpowder newsletter at St. Paul Research, which is part of Agora Financial, told INN that he sees continued weakness in the US dollar as very supportive for gold. King thinks the gold price has the potential to repeat last summers performance. Last summer we saw gold over US$2,000 an ounce. I expect were going to see the same thing again this summer, he said.
Watch the full interview with King above.
Ed Moy, chief market strategist at Valaurum and former director of the US Mint, told INN in early May that he expects gold will trade between US$2,000 and US$2,100 by the end of 2021. Moy said that the demand for physical gold as an investment has led to higher premiums, with major gold retailers reporting sales of gold ounces already in that price range.
So even though the spot price is well below that, to me the real price of gold is what the market is willing to pay for it and theyre willing to pay up to US$2,100, he noted. Moy also said that risk of inflation and uncertainty over when the economy will recover are both positive factors for a higher gold price.
Watch the full interview with Moy above.
Watch the full interview with Soloway above.
The Impact On Gold Prices
The question is what happens next?
There seems to be no escape from rising interest rates more specifically when the real rates which are inflation-adjusted remain negative. In other words, the interest rate should rise to an extent that the real rates are positive, which they have not been since 2020.
On the other hand, the real value of the debt reduces with high inflation. The reduction in the cost of debt comes with increased unemployment and lower GDP growth. Thus, what is the point of balance before the cycle turns is also a question to be asked.
A negative real interest rate typically should fire up gold, for the reason that an investor finds it safer to park the money in a hard asset with intrinsic value than those yielding negative returns.
The other alternative is buying company stocks but inflation has created a cloud of uncertainty reducing expectations of consumption expenditure and the risk of it cascading to lower price earnings expectations and stock prices. In India at least, the wall of retail money that has flowed into the equity markets has held up the financial asset markets to an extent.
Some Russian Miners Have Been Removed From The Ftse 100 Has That Had Any Impact On Sentiment Towards Miners At All
Certainly not that you can see in share price performance. The broad index of gold mining stocks is probably up 13% or so, year-to-date and within that youve got the Russian producers down more than 90% in some cases.
I think their removal has probably increased demand for gold miners with operations in other emerging markets. For example, I think its benefited South African- and South American-listed producers.
But certainly in terms of aggregate appetite, theres been no noticeable impact.
You May Like: 400 Oz Gold Bar Price
Gold Predictions For Future
Because gold is such a mature and well established market, and a rather settled and slow moving one, there are a lot of predictions that are made into the future for the precious metal. Of course, there are factors that need to be considered for long term gold price forecasts that are often unpredictable, such as the mining supply, or geo-political tensions. But, there are also a lot of factors that help drive gold, and these have been mostly driving the price up slowly over the years, such as currency inflation and the need for safe haven assets.
The digital gold narrative has also been eating into golds market cap. Still, the trend is up given how bullish the asset is. Gold is starting to make a comeback as Bitcoin cools off and the delta COVID variety begins to shake up markets again.
Gold Price Forecast 2022
On the supply side, gold production is rebounding from the shutdowns following the start of the Corona-crisis. Analysts expect that production will expand through 2022, given that prices are well above production costs. The World Bank forecasts prices to average 4% lower in 2021 and decline further in 2022.
Also Check: Cancel Gold Gym Membership Online
Four Facts Making Gold Prices Go Up And Down
Dollar For Dollar
An oft-told saying remarks that wherever the dollar goes, so goes gold prices. The two offer an inverse relationship: when demand for dollars slips, investors and banks around the world turn to gold, thereby increasing the value of everyone’s favourite metal .When the dollar appreciates in value, investors tend to shift their money from gold into the currency. The fall in demand for gold causes its value to depreciate. When the dollar appreciates in value, investors tend to transfer their money from gold into the currency. The fall in demand for gold causes its value to depreciate. Its relationship to the dollar correlates to how many see gold buying: it’s a defensive measure and a guard against inflation and currency devaluation.
Interested in Interest RatesAnother factor in gold’s rise or fall is interest rates. As the Telegraph writes: “Although gold has no yield, it tends to offer investors a better place to park their money when returns from bonds and cash savings are poor – as they are when rates are low.” The Telegraph goes on to quote Matthew Michael, a commodities expert at asset manager Schroders. “Gold behaves differently after a hiking cycle,” he says. “A quick look back in history shows gold has performed well when rate hikes happened in the case of the Fed.”
Gold Prices In The 21st Century
Gold found its prices rising on a financial market in 1979, when prices were topping out in dollars at 850 dollars per ounce in early 1980. Since then, the market went through a correction and prices have risen and dropped to date.
Let’s take a look at how the prices have changed in the last 20 years.
Also Check: 10kt Gold Ring Value
How Do You Forecast The Price Of Gold
Predicting gold prices can be said to be both a science and an art. For example, analysis of gold supply and demand is scientific and completely objective whereas aspects of technical and sentiment analysis of the current gold market can be more of an art as it relies on the skills and perspective of the gold analyst.
Generally speaking, when the focus of the gold forecast is longer term then analysis of the fundamentals, ie scientific analysis, comes to the fore.
For shorter-term predictions of gold prices, the price of gold in the coming weeks and perhaps few months, technical analysis of past and current gold prices, market trends, as well as current market sentiment can be more actionable predictors. Here, the fundamentals can still play a role but generally serve more as background details.
Gold Price Prediction For December 2021
The below gold price forecast article is based on one of our premium gold analyses. Enjoy:
Due to golds sharp daily upswing on Dec. 16, the yellow metal moved slightly above its rising support / resistance line, which could imply another very short-term upswing.
On Dec. 10, I warned on that gold could enjoy a countertrend rally after the Fed meeting. As such, the recent price action isnt particularly newsworthy. I wrote:
With the next Fed meeting scheduled for Dec. 14/15, more hawkish rhetoric/policy should materialize. And with investors prone to buy the rumor and sell the news, gold may suffer in the lead up to the event. Thereafter, a relief rally may follow once the news is known. However, this scenario is in perfect tune with the 2013 analogy and doesnt change the bearish medium-term outlook. The bottom line? A profound drawdown of gold should materialize over the next few months.
Yesterday , I added:
Given how far the USD Index declined from its very recent high, the above means that the USD Index would be likely to decline by not more than it had already declined recently.
Well, gold moved visibly higher from the recent lows, but:
Please see below:
For more context, I wrote on Sep. 27:
In fact, gold miners weakness suggests exactly that.
Please see below:
Recommended Reading: Buying Wow Gold Safe
Gold Price Prediction 2022
Gold price started in 2022 at $1,830.50. Today, Gold traded at $1,890.10, so the price increased by 3% from the beginning of the year. The forecasted Gold price at the end of 2022 is $2,085 – and the year to year change +14%. The rise from today to year-end: +10%. In the middle of 2022, we expect to see $2,033 per 1 Gold. In the first half of 2023, the Gold price will climb to $2,121 in the second half, the price would add $55 and close the year at $2,176, which is +15% to the current price.
The short-term forecast:
Premium On Gold Prices
The gold prices after an initial spike following the Ukraine crisis have retreated, signalling the absence of risk premium as a consequence of the developments in the region. Intriguingly, this is amidst gold prices in Turkey and Hong Kong being traded at a premium of $10 to $12 per ounce for over two months and the Indian market also now moving to premium over the landed price.
Clearly, the premium in the physical market has not been a messenger for price discovery, which has been clouded by the trades on unallocated gold and derivatives trade.
Read Also: How Much Is A 10k Silver Ring Worth
What Moves Gold Prices
The price of gold is moved by a combination of supply, demand, and investor behavior. That seems simple enough, yet the way those factors work together is sometimes counterintuitive. For instance, many investors think of gold as an inflation hedge. That has some common-sense plausibility, as paper money loses value as more is printed, while the supply of gold is relatively constant. As it happens, gold mining doesn’t add much to supply from year to year. So, what is the true mover of gold prices?
How Does The Price Of Gold Perform During Recessions
Gold prices typically increase during economic recessions. One way to analyze gold prices during a recession is by comparing its performance with the S& P 500. Below are the dates of the largest declines of the S& P 500 and the performance of gold prices during the same period. This data shows that gold increased significantly in 75% of these recessions.
Also Check: War Thunder Hack No Survey
Its Been Suggested The Fed Could Raise Rates Eight Times In 2022 Alone Do You Think It Can Do That
If inflation stays strong, which it should do, and employment is still robust in the US, then the Feds decision is quite easy fight inflation. So we probably will see rate rises coming through in the short term which is what the market is already pricing in, as you say. Where we are sceptical is that the Fed can do this without creating significant negative feedback loops in interest rate-sensitive parts of the economy such as the housing market.
We are also worried by reports of poor liquidity conditions in Treasury markets emerging before the Fed has even begun to sell down its own Treasury holdings . These are supposed to be the deepest and most liquid markets in the world.
The question is whether the Fed can step away from Treasuries without triggering disorderly market conditions. We think the probability that this will happen is much higher than the market believes. This is a very counter-consensus and unfashionable view.
The Recovery Of The Economy
Goldman Sachs is predicting a target-rate worth around $2,300 per ounce, that will result in complete recovery of the ruined economy. According to their expectations, the gold demands will mainly come from India and China.
Another important factor that will lead to economic stability is the invention of the COVID-19 vaccine, which will be distributed all around the world. That means the people who are able to work will still take an active part in the labor, helping the finance department to heal after the pandemic.
Money investors are still considering gold as a safe asset, and they are probably right because there werent significant changes through time. So, everyone who tries to answer the question of what will happen to this metal in 2021, may have conflicting answers, because it depends on so many factors, we cant even imagine. Even the experts are confused because we all have to let the economy recover, including the most affected sectors, as the media companies, banks, tourism, and bars and restaurants. It wont be easy, but these secure assets are really related to the global economy, and no matter how stable they seem, they are usually the most affected part when something big is happening.
Also Check: Kay Jewelers Ring For 19.99
Gold Price Forecast: 2021 2022 And Long Term To 2030
During the last year, the gold price increased from $1,479.13 to $1,858.42, marking a 25.6% growth year-over-year. In the first month of 2021, gold prices averaged $1,866.98/oz, 0.46 percent up from December. The World Bank predicts the price of gold to decrease to $1,740/oz in 2021 from an average of $1,775/oz in 2020. In the next 10 years, the gold price is expected to decrease to $1,400/oz by 2030.
In 2020, the high level of uncertainty observed in the global economy due to the outbreak of Coronavirus fueled demand for the yellow metal. In 2021, the gold price is predicted to gradually fall as uncertainty has decreased, but volatility is still high.
Investors’ expectations for an economic recovery due to vaccinations cautiously suggest a decline in gold prices, however, any event in 2021 that could increase volatility and uncertainty may put upward pressure on gold prices as low-to-negative interest rate conditions and loose monetary policies persist.
What Your Dollars Are Buying More Of Now
The dollar is buying as much as it did before. Its just that many of the things it is buying are not things that consumers know about, or want. For example the dollar is buying lots of extra idle time for each container, and lots of extra handling. It is buying an above-market rent by union trucking shops, who secure this uneconomic rent by laws against nonunion truckers. It is buying extra salaries and fuel burned by ships who are not idle, they are burning fuel to remain in position too far offshore for their anchors to reach the bottom. It is buying all sorts of extra labor, tanker trucks, permits, road taxes, and administrative costs to move energy by whatever channel is least constrained at the moment, in a world where constraints are shifting around and growing.
It is paying for warehousing of chips and other critical components that used to arrive justin-time. It is paying for food and shelter and clothing and Xboxes for millions of people who once worked, but now find it convenient to get paid not to work.
The list goes on.
You May Like: How To Get Free Golden Eagles War Thunder
Gold Price Forecast For 2022 And Beyond: A Buy Hold Or Sell
Gold price forecast for 2022 and beyond: A buy, hold or sell? Photo: Shutterstock
The gold price retreated from a mid-November spike to end the month slightly lower. It has picked up after a further drop at the start of December.
A stronger US dollar offset higher inflation expectations and stable interest rates, preventing the precious metal from holding onto the gains. The market continues to observe the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy and gold demand, as well as central bank policy on tapering monetary stimulus and raising interest rates.
Whats the outlook for the gold price in 2022? Should you consider taking a long or short position?
In this article, we look at some analysts latest gold price projections.
Factors That May Affect The Price Of Gold
Typically, traders associate fundamental analysis with the stock market, not gold. While fundamental stock market analysts monitor certain companies’ financial statements, gold market analysts monitor macroeconomic factors, political and economic world stability, and competition from investment alternatives to forecast prices. Let’s look into five macroeconomic parameters that can influence the cost of the main precious metal.
Don’t Miss: Heaviest Credit Cards 2020
Is The Price Of Gold Different In Other Countries
The current price of gold is the same, all things considered, in other countries. The US gold price is converted to the currency in that country based on the current exchange rate. In other words, no matter where in the world you purchase gold, the actual value of that gold in US dollars is the same. The below chart shows the annual gold price performance versus various fiat currencies.
When Will Gold Go Up: Golds Previous Price Performance
If you want to know when gold will go up, the yellow metals past performance is a good place to start. Lets start with a look at golds price action during the coronavirus pandemic.
The gold price started off 2020 trading at US$1,527 per ounce, and by May the yellow metal was sitting above US$1,700, a price level not seen since late 2012. Later that summer, as the economic fallout and uncertainty surrounding the pandemic really began to sink in, the gold price broke the US$2,000 level on August 7 to reach an all-time record high of US$2,067.15.
However, the market couldnt sustain that level for long, and gold had dipped below US$1,900 by the start of the fourth quarter. Pfizer and BioNTechs vaccine breakthrough announcement in November led to a 5 percent price shave, dropping gold once again below the US$1,800 level before it rebounded to just below US$1,900 by the close of the year.
All in all, gold closed out 2020 up about 21 percent for the year. According to FocusEcomics economist Steven Burke, its price growth in 2020 was strongly linked to the global impact of COVID-19. The pandemic invoked unprecedented economic uncertainty, which led to a surge in safe-haven demand and, in turn, boosted gold prices, Burke told the Investing News Network .
Burke also pointed out that a return to certainty begets a stronger appetite for risk on the part of investors, which bode poorly for safe haven demand and gold prices.
You May Like: How Much Does Todd Hoffman Get Paid For Gold Rush