Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Will Gold Prices Continue To Rise

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Will the price of gold rise in 2020?

The content of this article reflects the authors opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

The Bottom Line: History Offers Good Support For Investing In Gold Now

The period 1960-1975 shows how stability and confidence can be undermined by rising inflation. It started with Federal Reserve getting worried when 1965’s excellent economic and business growth led to rising prices.

To slow down inflations speedy rise, the Federal Reserve decided to tap the brakes in early 1966. The goal was to trim the economys growth rate and squelch inflation’s rise. Instead, the Fed trampled growth and only moderated inflation’s rise. By late 1966, they reversed course and unwittingly supported the 1967-68 go-go stock market, aggressive financial machinations and a speedy inflationary rise to new heights.

1960-1985 history of nominal GDP growth rate and CPI inflation rate

John Tobey

In late 1966, when economic conditions had weakened, I found and invested in a new high breakout stock: silver miner, Hecla Mining HL . It worked out well as Wall Street moved into inflation protection investments, just as the higher inflation rate was proving to be stubborn in spite of the Federal Reserves actions. Such moves were new at the time, following years of steady, low inflation – similar to todays situation. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect those 55-year old moves to return in some form as the doubts mounting about “transitory” become more widespread.

Logo for Hecla Mining

Will Gold Prices Rise In 2022

Graham Smith

Investment writer

Important information: The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.

AFTER seeing record inflows in 2020, the gold price languished last year1. As world stock markets staged strong recoveries and investors looked ahead to rises in US interest rates in 2022, gold lost some of its appeal. Higher US interest rates tend to lead to a stronger dollar and result in fewer dollars being needed to buy an ounce of gold.

Cryptocurrencies also presented a severe challenge to the gold price last year. Those investors minded to diversify into assets protected from the effective devaluation of paper currencies by central banks through money printing have never had so many options to choose from.

However, as we start a new year, there are several reasons to believe the recent lacklustre performance of gold could be turned on its head. First, inflation is proving stickier and stronger than many thought it would be. Americas Consumer Prices Index hit 7% last month2.

Last time inflation reached this sort of level 40 years ago gold was flying. Inflation means a reduction in the buying power of paper currencies, including how much gold can be bought for a given amount of paper.

Gold also has the proven ability to perform when the world throws us a curveball and tends to do well when other assets are performing badly.

Watch Toms view on the outlook for commodities in Q1.

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Will The Gold Price Continue To Rise

  • The Gold price broke above both the $1,785 and $1,800 support levels.
  • Bullish trend line has formed support near $1,805.

The Gold, US Dollar price tested resistance at $1,830 before correcting lower. The price briefly dropped below $1,800 and has since settled near $1,810.

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD price traded as low as $1,782 before starting a fresh climb. The price then retested the $1,830 resistance level before dropping lower. A high was formed near $1,829, with the price now consolidating near $1,810.

For Gold to turn bearish, the price will first need to test support near the $1,805 level. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $1,805. There is further support near $1,782, below which there is a chance momentum could take the price down towards $1,760. Further losses could send the price down as far as the $1,750 support level.

In contrast, if the price continues bullish, it will first need to test resistance near the $1,825 level. Above this there is further resistance near $1,830. A break above $1,830 could see momentum take the price back up towards the $1,850 resistance level.

James Stone is our Lead Forex and Indices Analyst.

James is a professional market analyst, with many years experience trading both forex and cryptocurrencies.

He holds an MBA in Investment Finance and is working towards his Ph.D.

Before joining FVPTrade, James served as a senior analyst at Forex Live.

Gold Price Prediction Trends & 5

Will Interest Rate &  US Dollar continue to rise in 2019 ...

Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst,

Most price forecasts arent worth more than an umbrella in a hurricane. There are so many factors, so many ever-changing variables, that even the experts usually miss the mark.

Further, some forecasters base their predictions on one issue. Interest rates will rise so gold will fall. Thats not even an accurate statement, let alone a sensible prediction .

But there is value in considering predictions. It can solidify why one has invested, offer factors that may have been overlooked, or even cause one to revise their expectations.

So while we take predictions with a grain of salt, lets look at what might be ahead for gold price in 2021 and the next 5 years. Well first summarize what many analysts are predicting, and then look at the factors that are likely to have the biggest impact on gold. Ill conclude with the probable prices I see based on those factors, as well as some long-term projections.

This will be fun, so lets jump in!

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What Caused Golds Underperformance

I see two distinct factors contributing to golds underperformance over the last 12 to 16-months:

  • From August 2018 to August 2020, gold rallied from a low of $1167 to a high of $2089. After a sharp 80% rise, an extended consolidation was expected. We saw something similar following golds breakout in 2004.

  • A record number of government stimulus payments went out to unemployed Americans. While some of that money went to essentials, much of the excess was gambled on meme stocks and altcoins as out-of-work Millennials tried to get rich day trading. That kept gold out of favor.

  • Gold Price Predictions For Next 5 Years

    When looking at the potential price of gold over the next five years, there are a lot of factors that could propel it higher. Thats one advantage gold ownership offers: it isnt about one factor or another, its about any factor that increases fear or uncertainty on the part of investors. And there are a lot of risks surrounding us at this point that could cause any type of crisis.

    But probably the biggest catalyst right now is monetary dilution. When a currency is debased, it makes real assets like gold more valuable, since they cant be created with a few computer key strokes.

    And the U.S. now has both monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus. Monetary stimulus usually goes first to the banking system and ends up inflating asset prices. But fiscal stimulus are funds injected directly into the economy and immediately spent. Its like me giving you $100 and you deposit it in a savings account vs. spending it that day on groceries.

    You probably dont need me to say it, but the U.S. doesnt have trillions of extra cash to spend on fiscal stimulus packages. It already cant balance a budget. Some claim theyll collect on the backend as jobs are created and the economic grows, tax revenue will increase. But the debts and deficits are so high now theyre mathematically unpayable. And history clearly shows they will lead to inflation .

    Where will the funds come from for these stimulus programs? They have to be , which will add to the already bloated deficit.

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    We Predict 2022 To Have One Or Two Bullish Cycles For Gold Which Might Push The Gold Price To $2500

    We consider our annual gold price forecast one of those important forecasts because of our track record in forecasting gold prices. It is clear that both gold and silver started a new bull market back in 2019. One important dynamic in bull markets is that it starts slowly and picks up speed over time. While the gold bull market is already for +2 years in progress we believe there is more upside potential. We predict golds price could rise to $2,500 area in 2022. Our 2022 forecast is strongly bullish but we need the USD to first run its course before gold can accelerate. We believe gold will accelerate mid-2022.

    InvestingHavens research team publishes for many years in a row its annual market forecasts. These gold and silver forecasts have been read by millions of investors over the years.

    Our 2022 gold price forecast comes at a very interesting time. At the time of writing the USD being one of the leading indicators for the price of gold has been dominating precious metals prices. It did suppress them throughout most of 2021, more than at any point in time in recent years. Lately, however, the USD has been rising together with precious metals.

    In other words, if anything gold price predictions might become among the most challenging ones. So far, our track record between 2016 and 2020 was phenomenally accurate. We will be open minded and transparent with our premium members and readers as it relates to our performance, now and at any point in 2022.

    If You Think Gold Prices Will Climb To $10000 Forget It

    Gold price may rise further, but there are still ‘downside risks’: UBS

    One kilogram gold bars are displayed for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International Co. … headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016. Thailand’s biggest buyer of gold will boost purchases by about 25 percent to 160 tons this year, said chief executive officer Pawan Nawawattanasub. Photographer: Dario Pignatelli/Bloomberg

    Gold prices have just smashed through the previous all-time record high around above $1,920 a troy ounce which was set in 2011. Bullion was recently fetching $1,942.

    The rally is almost certain to continue for at least a while. But some gold bulls may have gotten a little too exuberant. Some see it going as high as $10,000 an ounce. Even if that does come to pass, don’t expect it to last even as long as a day.

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    What Is A Gold Bubble

    Kimberly Amadeo is an expert on U.S. and world economies and investing, with over 20 years of experience in economic analysis and business strategy. She is the President of the economic website World Money Watch. As a writer for The Balance, Kimberly provides insight on the state of the present-day economy, as well as past events that have had a lasting impact.

    Eric is a duly licensed Independent Insurance Broker licensed in Life, Health, Property, and Casualty insurance. He has worked more than 13 years in both public and private accounting jobs and more than four years licensed as an insurance producer. His background in tax accounting has served as a solid base supporting his current book of business.

    Asset bubbles occur when the price of an asset, such as stocks or housing, increases rapidly without any strong reason to suggest a higher value. When the price of gold goes up dramatically over a short period, typically because speculators bid up prices beyond its intrinsic value, a gold bubble takes shape.

    Unlike real estate, oil, or shares of corporations that yield income or dividends, gold has very little fundamental value upon which to base a realistic price. This makes it easier for gold prices to get swayed by speculation.

    Learn more about the factors that impact gold prices, what makes gold susceptible to bubbles, and historical instances of gold bubbles.

    Will Gold Prices Continue To Fall Below $1790 Gold Weak

    However, the downside potential of this metals prices was restricted by the gradual spread of new strains of Covid-19 which led to fresh lockdowns in various cities of developed nations like the U.K. and Canada, among others.

    Global gold investment demand Investments in gold-backed ETFs continues to remain firm as data from World Gold Council shows that global inflows in such assets stood at $7,238 million for year-to-date February 19, 2021.

    Gold prices on Tuesday tumbled Rs 679 to Rs 44,760 per 10 grams in the national capital, due to bleak international market trend and rupee appreciation. The precious metal had closed at Rs 45,439 per 10 grams in the previous close.

    Silver prices also crashed by Rs 1,847 to Rs 67,073 per kg from the closing of Rs 68,920 per kg in the previous day trade. MCX Money Senior Analyst Tapan Patel, Spot prices for 24 karat gold at Delhi plunged by Rs 679 with fall in global gold prices and rupee appreciation. The spot rupee was trading around 14 paise stronger against the US dollar during the day, he added.

    In the international market, gold was trading lower at USD 1,719 an ounce and silver was down at USD 26.08 an ounce.

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    Gold Prices Finally Rise Amid Wall Street Turbulence And Inflationary Pressures

    By: Nicholas Earl

    Gold could be returning to its established role as an inflation hedge, with prices finally increasing after many weeks of treading water.

    Prices have breached the $1,830 benchmark, following considerable market resistance at around $1,820 per ounce.

    Gold is now trading at $1,834 per ounce, dipping marginally on Friday morning after significant increases over recent days.

    The precious metal has become attractive to investors again with stocks plunging across Wall Street, alongside a broader drop on equities earlier in the week.

    In particular, Nasdaq has fallen into correction territory after plummeting 10 per cent on Wednesday.

    Inflation has also risen to seven per cent in the US, which has also provided gold with an attractive tailwind.

    However, prices were not growing in line with expectations due to fears of hiked interest rates from developed economies across the world.

    Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said: With gold proving popular from its age-hold role as a haven asset, its price jumped up to nearer $1,840 before falling back so far today. It will be interesting to see golds next step as investors continue to weigh up the contrasting factors of a declining stock market that would typically be supportive of gold versus an environment where rising interest rates are expected, which would typically be negative for the non-yield bearing gold.

    Read more

    Big Surge In 2019 And 2020

    Gold Rate Today, 9 March 2021: Gold Prices Witness ...

    Gold prices have seen a good surge if we look 2019 and 2020, which were ~52% and ~25% respectively. However we witnessed some underperformance in 2021 where prices have been trading between Rs.47,000 and 49,000 mark. The demand for gold in India has bounced sharply from the lows seen during pandemic in 2020.

    Recent World Gold Council data suggest that the for quarter ended Sep’21 demand for gold jumped to 47% YoY to 139.1 tonnes as compared to 94.6 tonnes in the year ago. The jewelery demand also has seen a jump of 58% YoY in India during July -Sep 2021 period to 96.2 tonnes due to strong pent up demand, occasion related gifts, economic rebound and lower prices. ETF’s have not been the best supporter for gold since the start of this year, although Central bank gold buying spree and CFTC positions maintaining their position in net longs, have increased the overall sentiment for the gold prices.

    Unlike Diwali 2020, this year there are much less restrictions, shops are open, with the overall demand has also increased in this year which can be seen from the import numbers which stand at 740 tonnes till September. Risky assets have seen massive upside and have delivered handsome returns in the last few months, and any change in trend or weakening if the momentum could lead to a massive surge in safe havens – particularly gold.

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    Gold Price Forecast 202: Conclusion

    It is clear that we have sufficient confirmation from the gold chart patterns on all timeframes as well as golds leading indicators that gold may go through a really bullish 2022:

    • The daily gold chart has a 12 month reversal. For gold to be bullish in 2022 we must see a completion of this bullish reversal when 2022 kicks off.
    • The weekly and monthly gold charts show a 9 year uptrend followed by a 9 year reversal. Very orderly, making our gold forecast and a gold breakout very reliable.
    • The quarterly gold chart confirms the lower timeframes.
    • The Euro must hold 110 points, and start rising in 2022 to lit a fire in the gold market.
    • Bond yields should not rise too fast, they can rise but slowly to not push back gold.
    • Gold is likely going to fill the gap with the monetary inflation rise.

    Gold Price Forecast Faq

    The current price of gold is $1 788.97.

    The gold price moves in response to macroeconomic factors, as it gains value in times of volatility on the financial markets. A growing number of analysts see gold prices rising 11.5% in the second half of 2021.The dollar is also expected to weaken and could be another potential tailwind for gold which is considered a safe investment asset in times of market uncertainty.

    Since the start of 2021, spot gold has gained about 0.66% clawing back some gains after a March stumble that saw prices drop below $1,700 per ounce. David Lennox of Fat Prophets said he sees a fairly big tick ahead for prices of the precious metal.

    At the moment of writing, we have a positive outlook on the price of gold for the near future and do not expect the precious metal to go low. We do expect the price to go lower slightly in October 2021 and then to rise again at the end of 2021.

    At the beginning of January 2025, we predict a price of $2,668.17. The maximum price forecast for 2025 is $2,911.58, and the minimum price forecast is $2,668.17.

    Long-term price forecasts for any investment asset are very approximate and may change due to various factors. We cannot make a reliable gold price forecast for 10 years in the future. At the end of 2029, the price will be $4,307. By the middle of 2030, it will grow to $4,469. The end of 2030 will bring us the price of $4,679.

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